Equations of Power

Mathematical models have become one of the principal infrastructures through which contemporary societies are governed, shaping decisions in science, policy and the economy, often beyond meaningful public scrutiny. Used across domains as diverse as climate change, finance, public health and environmental assessment, models do more than describe reality: they frame problems, distribute responsibility, legitimise decisions and structure public debate. Their technical complexity frequently confers epistemic authority, allowing them to operate as influential instruments of governance while remaining relatively insulated from critical scrutiny.
At its core, Equations of Power argues that mathematical models have become one of the principal sources of symbolic power in contemporary societies, shaping not only decisions but also what counts as legitimate knowledge. Written as an essay in the sociology and political economy of modelling, and grounded in the author's four decades of experience in modelling and science for policy, the book moves from definition—what models are—to diagnosis—how they acquire and exercise authority—and finally to reform. Its case studies include COVID-19, water resources, the Ecological Footprint, the mathematisation of economics, Digital Twins of the Earth and climate policy.
Unlike many critiques of quantification, the book is written by a long-time practitioner of modelling who helped develop methods for improving the quality and transparency of mathematical models before turning to their broader social implications. Rather than offering criticism alone, it presents concrete approaches for strengthening modelling practice, including global sensitivity analysis, modelling of the modelling process, sensitivity auditing, the use of critical friends, statactivism and model observatories.
The book concludes by examining why these proposals have gained so little traction despite widespread recognition of the limitations of current modelling practices. Building on the author's 2020 Nature manifesto for responsible modelling and his 2023 Oxford University Press volume The Politics of Modelling, it contributes to current debates on evidence-based policy, technocracy, artificial intelligence, quantification and the governance of science. It serves both as a research monograph and as an accessible teaching text for interdisciplinary courses.